Donald Trump believes his rallies are a window to the future.
He's ignoring the polls - even his own internal efforts - which say he's going to lose.
Instead he sees hundreds, thousands, turning up at venues in key swing states and that leads him to believe his campaign has a hidden strength.
He invokes the memory of Brexit in the UK, where the polls suggested a referendum question on Britain leaving the European Union would be defeated, only to be proven wrong.
He's told rallies that the election will be like "Brexit five times over".
And he thinks come election day the "movement" he says he's created, the silent majority, will turn out in strength and sweep him to victory.
He initially claimed he would win states where Republicans haven't challenged in years. He honestly believed he could win his home state of New York and neighbouring Connecticut. He thought New Jersey was in play and he could even win California.
None of those states are in play. Hillary Clinton will win them all easily.
Now the race is narrowing and it comes down to essentially four states: Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and New Hampshire.
Source: Aje
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